slickvguy's Comments Stream Stats
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- Total Comment Stream rating - = 19
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Yellen's sentiment was echoed by Chicago Fed president Charles Evans, though he tempered his enthusiasm for wide-scale stimulus by calling current policy 'sobering.' "By historical standards, our current fiscal debt is not unusually large; but our expected future obligations are enormous." (full speech)
On Jan 04 11:50 PM bearfund wrote:
> Almost but not quite; a bit too much class warfare and not quite
> enough both sides against the middle. A better expression would be:
>
>
> 1. If you are rich, we will keep you rich.
>
> 2. If you are poor because you have no marketable skills and don't
> care to acquire any, spend too much, and/or can't be bothered to
> look after yourself, we will give you money to support your bad habits.
>
>
> 3. If you are not "you" in (1) or (2), you are "we" in (1) and (2),
> and if you don't like it you're welcome to join "you" in (2) by accepting
> an unlimited stay in federal prison.
>
> Some days it sounds a lot better than working for a living.
>
> On Jan 04 10:34 PM Jackson Cash wrote:
Finally, Some Holiday Cheer
I don't think that the market has all the bad news built in. It's highly likely that we retest 2008 lows. This rally has that bubble feeling we had in 2000. Ignoring of reality. Optimism is nice - but REALISM is even better. Great values? Sorry - I don't see too many of those. I see lots of relatively lower prices - but that does not mean relatively cheap. To be sure, value is much better than it was a year ago. At SPX 800, I'm a buyer. At SPX 900, much less eager. And the higher we go above 900, the worse the expected reward gets for a value investor. Let others jump on the trend train. Haven't we seen that go bust enough times?
I'm not a doom and gloomer. We'll get through this eventually. But I see far too much wishing and hoping for rebounds/bottoms rather than recognition that fundamental long-term shifts have taken place. There's still far too much economic damage that needs to get unwound before a healthy recovery can take place. Did bailing out GM and Chrysler for a few months get rid of their problems? Of course not. All those layoffs and business closings are going to suddenly revers? Government trillions will take time to work their way through the system.
I hope I'm wrong, but I see this as a suckers/delusional rally. The higher it goes, the worse the outcome for those buying into it. When I sense the frantic buying of those who fear they have missed the bottom, it'll be time to short again.
Market Signal: Proceed with Caution
Man, what would we do without such insight?
Preventing the Depression of 2009
Buying USO Is a No-Brainer
> Nothing is a "no brainer" in investing. That sort of cavelier and
> careless attitude has lost a lot of people money in this environment.
Bravo.
And what does "no-brainer" mean? That you have no brains for opening the position? How I hate that phrase.
Everyone knows that one day commodities will be a huge winner again. Duh. That's always been true in the past, and even more so in the future. But WHAT to buy and more importantly WHEN to buy it is another story completely.
The fixation on the amount of price decline reminds me of people buying the financials in 2008 because "they can't go lower". Oops. If there's one thing to learn from the past year, it's that there's no sucha thing as "too low". Cheap does not mean low relative price!!! How many value managers (read: Bill Miller) got creamed buying stocks that were lower-priced but NOT cheap (i.e. good value).
You'd better have a rock-solid strategy mapped out, low or no leverage, and plenty of patience if you take positions now. And no matter how much they've fallen - they can fall much more. Oil falls to $25/bbl - not impossible by any means - it's still quite a haircut from current prices. I make no predictions on prices of commodities. Sadly, unlike almost everyone else, I am not able to predict the future.
At this point, I think people should focus on managing risk and getting through the sh*tstorm - rather than swinging for fences. Not the time to be a hero.
Wall Street Boys Cautiously Bullish - Barron's
Bottom line: Human beings are easily fooled. We just aren't that evolved yet - as much as we like to think we are. Commenter after commenter pretending he or she is brighter than others with no proof whatsoever. And that includes EVERYONE. Nothing - and I mean NOTHING - is as it appears. But we need to fill up our lives doing SOMETHING, so why not waste it reading endless market yammerings that are worthless? lol. Don't be too hard on the predictors et al. Just doing the silly human being thing. Illusions, and all that.
I'm not sure which of us is more stupid: those who insist on predicting that which they cannot know OR the rest of us who read and comment on the predictions. Round and round we go....
On Dec 21 05:02 PM hernje wrote:
> Who in their right mind would put any credence in what these know
> nothings say? The fact that every one of these 'experts' was completely
> blind sided by the biggest financial meltdown in the last 100 years
> shows that they are just a bunch of talking heads, with absolutely
> no special insight.
Why Gold Hasn't Been a Hedge Against Inflation
Brilliant.
The "DOPE-DUD" Phase For Canadian Banks?
Cramer's Stop Trading! (12/12/08) Absence of Panic
Research in Motion Warns, But Do Individual Stocks Matter Anymore?
It is *NOT* different this time. Value investing is the only thing that ever has made sense. Too many people think "buy and hold" means something that it doesn't. The key is *WHAT* you choose to buy and hold, and what PRICE you pay for it versus the VALUE.
Who Will Take Over Citi?
That about says it all. You know nothing about the future. But don't let that stop you from writing. Must write, must write, must write...
Citigroup: The End Draws Near
On Nov 21 08:15 PM bankanalyst wrote:
> You provide no reasoning other than some irrational and emotional
> justification based on past precedence (WaMu) that is totally irrrelevant
> to the current circumstances. Whether or not Citi fails to exist
> in its current form notwithstanding, your ego driven grandstanding
> and the reaction you intend to induce is despicable. Reading your
> bio, i cannot believe you had held such high level positions in the
> banking system but then again perhaps we are where we are because
> of people like you. You were despised at CommerceBank despite having
> 'invented' evening and weekend hours. As many others have noted,
> you are a legend in your own mind. Go back to your golf and leave
> this to unbiased professionals. ZERO Value gibberish.
Citigroup: The End Draws Near
This is a big part of the problem. People on the net and TV yapping endlessly about things they know nothing about.
Mitt Romney's NY Times Op-Ed On the Automakers: Dead On
Is Buy-and-Hold Dead? Hardly