Kris Tuttle

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    • Amazon.com: Why Now Might Be the Time to Short
      A little screed-ish in presentation but a fairly thoughtful analysis of sentiment on AMZN.

      I too am surprised how the company went from an also-ran to one of the Four Horseman that Jim Cramer is touting now.

      Amazon is a great company, I admire them and appreciate them as a customer. As a business it is certainly solid and worth owning. But the move from 40 to over 60 forced me to cash out. I hadn't thought of shorting but in this market I'm adding to short positions so maybe some puts would make sense. Bull could still like the trendline if the stock fell from $70 to $50-55.
      Jun 14 05:45 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
    • Apple, Not Amazon, Should Purchase Netflix
      Doesn't make sense to me. First of all I doubt Apple wants to be in the mail rental business in any way shape or form. Secondly it is their stated aim to do digital delivery which is what iTunes, Video iPod, AppleTV and so on are all about. Why buy a business that is going away? Apple has proven adapt at adding millions of new users organically which is more and more unique in a corporate world obsessed by growth through M&A (Oracle, Yahoo, IBM.)

      Even if the price is cheap I'd view it as a negative for Apple. There are probably some interested buyers out there for Netflix but now that the crowd seems to believe in digital TV the move has some PR challenges.
      Jun 13 05:26 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
    • Zix Launches E-Prescribing Business
      It's an interesting little story. One fly in the ointment is that these small offices lack the infrastructure and expertise to support mobile wireless devices which are the front end of the system. This creates a little bit of a chicken/egg issue. If ZIX steps in to solve it their business shifts and maybe so do margins. Maybe they can partner with someone like BestBuy/Geeksquad or Cisco.

      The other issue is the company has a checkered past and several pending class-action suits regarding the whole issue of penetrating these small offices. In sum the problem is harder to solve than it appears and the opportunity may demand the resources of a bigger company.
      Jun 12 08:00 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
    • Is Retalix the Next Takeover Target
      Sorry but the acquisition was not in the BI field but in the Application Development field.
      Jun 12 07:26 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
    • Keeping an Eye on MEMC Electronic Materials As A Buying Opportunity
      MEMC suffers from the perception that they are just a commodity play. They are more than that. At Research 2.0 we agree with your idea to be long here.

      Our recent monthy goes into some of the reasoning (free.)

      Silicon is the new Black
      Jun 08 06:08 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
    • Who is Crocs Trying to Fool?
      The rub is always in the timing on something like this. Your analysis is reasonable although has the clear bias of a guy who is short. No matter. There are two things that make me feel that the time might not be right this second. The first is that we are coming into the summer which I expect should be the best of times for them as they load the much expanded channel with their supply of the traditional Crocs. The second reason is the difficulty in figuring consumer tastes with something like this. I'm surprised by people I know showing up with these super ugly shoes on their feet. The boots and other modesl could appeal to a sort of croc lover at first. The shoe business and fashion are hard to fathom sometimes.

      I'm with you in wanting to short a rocket like this but have been burned too many times being early. If some signals come in that suggest a slowing of their momentum it could be a good short.
      Jun 08 05:44 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
    • Google Audio Ads Have Yet To Take Off
      There are two obstacles that one can see right away:
      1. Radio advertising is very expensive, especially if you are a national rather than regional company.
      2. Creating a quality radio spot seems to involve some services from a professional production company that creates another expense.

      The $400 credit is nice but it sounds like one will be spending a few thousand on any radio campaign compared to a few hundred for AdWords.

      We are still considering trying radio for the learning experience but the cost/value equation doesn't look nearly as good as what we get today from online advertisements.
      Jun 07 06:54 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
    • Palm: Analyst Day, Scheduled For April 10, Inconsistent With Buyout Ideas
      Poor reasoning! I am no fan of PALM or the buyout speculation but can tell you that even if something is underway the instructions to company management are to proceed as if there are not. In other words business as usual including hosting an analyst day or visiting customers. Until a deal is finalized at least at the LOU stage the company has to do what is in the best interest of current shareholders.

      Therefore I think it is wrong to read so much into it.
      Mar 23 09:13 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
    • Why Logitech Is Making Us Nervous
      I'm not saying the company doesn't have Apple-friendly products. Of course they do. My point is only the presentation gives you a sense of seeing Logitech all over the place in the Apple store in a favored position. I've been in many Apple stores and I don't find this to be the case. Logitech has much better positioning in more general technology retail outlets. I also find many of their products (which I use) are more friendly on Windows than on the Mac. For example the Logitech USB headset I tested recently had flawless plug and play with my XP system but didn't deliver the same seemless performance with my Mac.

      I hope that clears it up a little. My real point is that the story they are telling is certainly a little off from the reality I see in the end markets and I think investors might be expecting more from them.
      Mar 14 18:05 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
    • Apple's iPhone Partnership With Cingular Could Drag It Down
      Helpful comments and I'm feeling more relaxed. If Apple can evolve this to more carriers and VoIP providers can leverage the platform I'll be happy. As for what happens outside of WiFi? The answer is nothing and that's fine with me. I have WiFi everywhere I am in Boston, Paris and NY. With WiMax and other broadband services in the next few years it will get better. Yes you have to pay but have 100% choice as to who and how. Not true with carrier-based technologies that lock you in and charge you up the wazoo.

      I lust after the new iPhone as much as anyone but just want it to be open and not tied to some crappy carrier.
      Jan 10 05:55 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
    • Ten Thoughts On The iPhone
      Great summary and post. I think you did justice to the real adoption issues, especially Cingular.
      Jan 09 16:18 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
    • Apple's iPhone Revealed: A First Hand Account From MacWorld
      HELLO?! Price is with a TWO YEAR CONTRACT with Cingular! Yech!

      If you are going to report on the event and leave out the biggest gotcha why go?
      Jan 09 16:12 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
    • Real Estate Speculation In Long Island
      Barry I think the rule of thumb on buidling your own home in the NY metro area to be something between $200-300/sq ft. This would put the costs for a 5000 sq ft unit around $1-1.5M. Now I believe these figures are "retail" that is if you or I were doing it with a builder. Presumably a builder would have a big cost advantage in labor and materials. Still I think you have to be looking at *at least* $750,000 in on the rebuild and I would take the over on that.

      Adding the cost of the land and you are right at that $1.99M price point that is holding for now. That makes me think the math is right as speculators are now at a point of wanting to just "get out flat."

      Some of the really special homes in your pics will probably sell and even turn a profit. However I expect that many of the other ones that are less inspired and not special at all will end up losing a bit of money on the flip.

      Kris Tuttle
      Jan 05 05:48 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
    • Sun Still Searching For a Profitable Business Model
      Juris, Thanks for the comment. I'm not seething, just quoting public numbers from Sun and Amazon. Sun has clearly established some new momentum on the technology side of their business which certainly is a key foundation to build from. For me the question remaining has to do with driving net operating margins up in a sustained way. This should be a good quarter for them and the stock has enjoyed a good run from very depressed levels. Sun is more of a company to hope for than seeth at. They have plenty of potential but disappointed for a long time. Most people, including me, would rather see a successful Sun versus Oracle or Microsoft or even maybe IBM. Let's hope they don't blow it. Kris
      Dec 14 13:03 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
    • Yahoo's Reorganization: Where's David Filo?
      My impressions are the same with respect to Sue. To me Semel is sharp as a bowling ball and without someone with some vision and leadership they will continue to flounder around. Risky situation if they don't figure it out and do something in the next year.
      Dec 06 05:25 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article

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