rightinsanfrancisco

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160 Comments

    • Thu Nov 20th 12:11 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Inflation Remains Beyond Our Horizon to Predict
      Buy TIPS.
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    • Thu Nov 20th 12:07 PM | Rating: +1 -1
      Commented on:
      Why Most Americans Don't Mind if the Big Three Fail
      If Detroit's message were that they have made significant progress (with credible examples) and that they have a viable plan to be successful after this credit crisis, the American public would be glad to help them over the hump. But instead, their message is that the sky will fall if they go bankrupt. People will invest in something viable, but not a failed proposition with their leaders flying their jets into Washington and their multi-million dollar salaries.
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    • Thu Nov 20th 11:54 AM | Rating: +1 0
      Commented on:
      Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News
      Donald Rumsfeld was rightly abused for some things, but he was right that there are known unknowns as well as unknown unknowns. The housing market should be an easily known unknown. Calculate the housing prices' inflation overt the past 20 years versus trendline - relative to either general inflation or as a % of household income. Then revert to the mean. If markets do not over-correct (a big if, but with government intervention, perhaps not too big), we are about half way there. Then look at the portion of us that are home owners and figure how long it will take to get that back to a historically-sustainab... rate of of 65-67%. At a rate of building 50% below the past decade, with demolitions and population growth, it is a few years. These are knowable unknowns. Plan on two to three years of housing being a drag on the economy - unless government messes it up.
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    • Wed Nov 19th 14:05 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News
      The Detroit hearings on CNBC are fascinating. The Ford, Chrysler, and UAW leaders have tried to make the point that they have made a lot of painful cuts and that the real problem is that credit has stopped with a devastating effect on the big 3, suppliers, customers, and dealers. Thus, what they are asking for is a bridge loan until their accelerated cost reductions kick in and the consumer can come back - albeit at a lower level.
      On the other hand, Rick Wagoner of GM talks only of the disaster facing the country if they are allowed to fail, and refuses to talk about what their path forward holds, how long their cash will last, or how much they really need.
      Prediction: noone will have the courage to let tthe industry go down - not the congress, the Senate, or the President. Then Detroit will come back after January with a new set of actors that don't have to worry about Republicans. It will be a good early test for Obama.
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    • Tue Nov 18th 13:13 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      The Humility of Realism
      As a San Francisco home owner, I have to say that the underwater comment is a very obvious symptom of the fact that home inflation has been double digit forever, and that the required equity input has become nil. the long term Case-Shiller index suggests that there is another 10-15% to go on average home prices, and no bailout program will stop the laws of economics.
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    • Tue Nov 18th 13:01 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Canadian National Railway: Attractive Dividend Stock
      If you hold them in a taxable account, it is moot since you get a credit for taxes paid to foreign governments.
      CNI is the best RR in North America in terms of route structure, operating practices, and management.
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    • Tue Nov 18th 12:55 PM | Rating: 0 -1
      Commented on:
      Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News
      So, the economists now all agree that the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression will end six months into the Messiah's administration. One can only imagine how the media will turn from "everything is falling apart" to "the dawning of a new era." If the market is a leading indicator with a 6 month advance, we should be seeing the bottom now - but the uptick can't really begin until the inauguration. Poor John McCain.
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    • Mon Nov 17th 13:51 PM | Rating: +1 0
      Commented on:
      Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News
      The problem in all of this looking for scapegoats is that the problem is not corporations, unions, or even government. It is the American people who have taken on an unsustainable amount of personal and collective (government) debt. The game is over. We can only consume as much as we produce, and over the last few decades we have abandoned our productive resources while emphasizing consumption - to be paid for by our kids and grandkids. As a nation, we need to take personal responsibility.
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    • Sat Nov 15th 14:19 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      First Call of the Crisis: Peter Schiff Could Be Video of the Year
      We all adjust our attitudes in increments and look to trusted experts to help us. Laffer had a good point about the marginal affect of tax rates, but that has been made into a never ending religion and he gets credibility when he talks about anything financial. Ben Stein is a very funny and interesting guy, but he obviously has financial blinders on.
      Peter Schiff should be on everybody's reading list. He's also not batting 100%, but he understood the macroeconomic factors well before conventional wisdom and Wall Street shills.
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    • Sat Nov 15th 13:59 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Amazon, Apple, Google: Buying on the Way Down
      One should know whether you are an investor or a trader. This seems like an investor acting like a trader.
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    • Fri Nov 14th 14:32 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News
      The auto industry bailout proposal is the first test of the Obama reign. The Republicans will say "no" to socialism beyond the financial industry - particularly with no credible path to viability - and the Democrats will probably have enough power to say "yes" - but after January. Europe will object; the public will ask where the billions went.
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    • Thu Nov 13th 19:20 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News
      Two groups will get their rewards:
      1. the UAW which delivered Michigan;
      2. the environmentalists who want to force Detroit to develop better cars.

      The specific path is TBD - but it will cost you and me a bundle.
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    • Wed Nov 12th 13:27 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Thankfully Bailouts Haven't Been Expanded to Overnight Delivery Companies
      Thankfully, this morning Paulson articulated a few boundary-drawing principles of what he sees as the spirit of the agreement with Congress enshrined in the Troubled Asset Relief Program:
      1. The TARP is to be aimed at the financial industry.
      2. It is intended to make investments or buy assets that could have a return to the taxpayers.

      Now, he could change his mind tomorrow.
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    • Wed Nov 12th 13:19 PM | Rating: +1 0
      Commented on:
      Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News
      So, the auto industry is too important to be allowed to fail, so we will give it several billions, but attach conditions that will ensure it becomes a sustainable industry. And those conditions will be determined by Nancy Pelosi and Congress? By Hank Paulson and the Bush Administration? By Barack Obama? If there ever was a place to let capitalism run its course and the ingenuity of the American business community to show its mettle, this is it
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    • Tue Nov 11th 13:45 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News
      Looking for some signs of realistic progress:
      - The big banks are starting to readjust mortgages, and Fannie/Freddie seem to be ready also. But,
      - We got home ownership up to 70%, when the underlying support level should be about 65%. In other words, we-ve got 10% too many homes - and too big at that. And,
      - Home prices have fallen, but to get back to the long term trend-line, they need to go down another 10%. And,
      - Nobody seems to be interested in spending the $700 billion on the toxic mortgage derivatives. Instead, we're buying banks, insurance companies, and soon car companies. Where was that in the Congressional testimony?
      Obama would do well to stand back for awhile. Let the bad ideas be discredited, and let the full blame be laid at the feet of others. Hopefully he can come in as a breath of fresh air rather than a continuation of this path.
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