Lance

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    • Thu Jul 24th 09:05 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Should Japan Investors Welcome the Return of Inflation?
      CLH: Inflation is certainly apparent in Japan -- I live here, and I can tell you that for the first time in a decade and a half prices are rising.

      And yes, as the article implies, it's cost-push inflation, not the best kind.

      But as is typical with many phenomena in equity markets, the inflation is likely to be harmful in some cases, potentially helpful in others. Manufacturers will have to weigh resistance to price hikes. There very well might be enough resistance to hurt. But if the inflation is bothersome enough to manufacturers, the BoJ may have to respond, and that could make Japanese banks look even cheaper than they already do as spreads might widen.

      Disclosure: Long Japanese banks since winter and loving it.
      View article »
    • Mon Jun 16th 09:41 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Nikkei Weekly Outlook: Eye on I-banks, Inflation and the Yen
      Hello Steven,

      We've also got 63.3 percent of the issues in the TSE 1st section trading above their 10-week MAs. That number reached a rather eye-catching 84.4 percent in mid May, and it's been stubbornly high since then, even with the recent pullback. Either the market is embarking on a serious trend higher, which I would tend to doubt, or that number needs to come down below 50 percent, perhaps to 40 or just below, where I would expect safer buying.

      I continue to like Sumitomo Trust, and full disclosure: I have a position. At below 850 (closed up 29 at 852 today), it yields more than 2 percent, and the dividend is solid. Actually, some of the banks here are still trading at undeserved discounts, IMHO. Indeed, Wall Street will either erase some of those discounts or pad them this week. But I continue to buy on bouts of weakness. The systemic risk seems to be over there (stateside), not over here.
      View article »
    • Thu Jun 5th 08:47 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Japanese Market Awakening from Its Long Slumber?
      Lies, damned lies, and statistics.

      Sure, Japan is outperforming in the short time frame of less than 90 days. Yes, Japan is up from the March lows ~20 percent versus ~10 percent for the US.

      But one would assume that you are aware that Japan bottomed nearly a full 35 percent (!) off its 2007 highs, whereas the US bottomed roughly 19 percent off its 2007 highs.

      So the US currently stands (basis the S&P 500) about 11 or 12 percent off its 2007 highs, while Japan's Nikkei 225 still remains, after this 20 percent rally, about 21 percent below its 2007 highs. Yes, Virgina, it takes more of a percentage gain to get back the larger percentage loss, and Japan is still hanging on to a dandy loss from last year. In fact, Japan is still farther down from it's 2007 highs than the S&P 500 was at the apparent *bottom* of its swoon on March 17.

      Now tell me who is outperforming whom in, say, the past 11 months.

      Note: The TOPIX is running about 3 percent better than the Nikkei, but both Japanese indices languish much lower compared to their 2007 highs than the S&P 500. An equivalent S&P 500 loss from the 2007 highs would have taken that index down to somewhere just above 1,000. So far, it's never gotten close.
      View article »
    • Wed May 14th 08:32 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Japan's 'Lost Decade' Gives Way to the New Asian Reality
      ... even if the securities markets don’t yet reflect this: They’re up only marginally so far this year.

      What securities markets in Japan could you possibly be referring to, please? Neither the N225 nor the TOPIX are up at all. Both are down nearly 10 percent in fact. They are up from down about 20 percent in March, but then that is still not up this year.
      View article »
    • Wed May 7th 08:34 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Bespoke's Country Snapshot (5/6/08)
      Japan in a "perpetual downtrend"? I guess perpetual would be since the end of last July, then. Prior to the end of last July, Japan spent nearly a year in an uptrend coming off the mid-year '06 worldwide equity snap-correction. Prior to that '06 correction, Japan had risen about 40 percent in the previous 12 months. So, no, hardly "perpetual" at all. While Japan has certainly lagged in some time frames (like the past 18 years as a time frame), it has not been, particularly recently, a perpetual laggard. It just seems that way to some people, especially to those who don't time the market very well.
      View article »
    • Thu May 1st 08:47 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      A Few Reasons to Buy Yen
      Maybe.

      But you should know that the Japanese *always* repatriate cash leading up to year-end book closings (March 31). So that means very little at present.

      Moreover, the BoJ is unlikely to raise interest rates anytime soon. A bit of inflation is actually *welcome* here -- somewhat of a relief -- after prolonged deflation. Politically, with a weakening job market and stagnant salaries, raising rates here right now is a non-starter. And remember, the BoJ Governor is a third-pick political compromise, hardly anyone to show a streak of independence when it comes to monetary policy. Also, "round two" inflation (higher salaries demanded by unions to keep pace with higher prices) is much less likely here now than in the Euro zone or America. A rate hike here before the Fed? I'll give you at least 3-2 odds that does not happen.

      My bet is that the yen-dollar cross goes almost nowhere for the next year or longer. Maybe 4 or 5 percent up and down but not getting any real directional traction either way. The people who were calling for 80 six weeks ago have lost their bet, which was really a bet on a complete American economic collapse. Didn't happen, and looks less likely day by day.
      View article »
    • Mon Mar 24th 17:52 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Market Outlook: Watch Out, the Signs Can Be Deceiving
      dink: it wasn't a metaphor; it was a simile
      View article »
    • Tue Jan 22nd 08:58 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      If Not Now, When Mr. Bernanke?
      If the Fed has to react to every market correction, then something is wrong with the market. If the market is going to "crash" unless the Fed acts, then something was already wrong with the market.

      Maybe they want to do something. But maybe they want to do something at a time when the market isn't going to drive over them like cheap roadkill 5 minutes after they do it. You get more bang for your buck by picking your shots carefully. It's also very doubtful that the situation is that dire, except perhaps to people who thought S&P 1550 five years into a bull market was a good place to hop on board.

      I'd like to see this panic extended a few days so I can buy some values. I don't need a 5 percent Fed-induced burp that will fade like last summer's suntan, thanks.
      View article »
    • Thu Jan 10th 23:58 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Aiful Corpration to Benefit From Japanese Consumer Lending Consolidation
      Let the record show that this moron never responded to any comment posted here, and more importantly, his "average-down buy" (yeah, even "pro" posters can be stupid) is now down about, oh gee, another 50 percent from his average-down entry price.

      Buy more here? ^_-

      God, I want to get notified so I can take the other side of some of these trades.
      View article »
    • Thu Jan 10th 23:54 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Nikko Cordial: Southeastern Asset Management Offers to Sell for 1900 Yen
      Oh, and let me add, I was plenty happy to give Chuck my shares last spring at 1700.

      Who pays these fools?
      View article »
    • Thu Jan 10th 23:53 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Nikko Cordial: Southeastern Asset Management Offers to Sell for 1900 Yen
      As of today, January 11, 2008, Nomura is trading at a discount to the Citi-bid-supported Nikko.

      Chuck Prince was/is a moron. I rest my case.
      View article »
    • Mon Dec 24th 07:34 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Why I'm Not 100% Convinced That We've Entered A Bear Market
      First, even if we are in a bear market, they are notoriously difficult to play. Slow slides followed by short covering rallies that will make your head swim.

      I think you've made some good points, and considered this from several angles. The way I would play this if I was in US equities is pretty straightforward. I'd be oscillating between zero and about 50 percent long, as apparent buying opportunities presented themselves. I would hold the other 50 percent in reserve for the 25 to 35 percent pullback, which may never come, but which is much more likely under the current circumstances than it was before. I think if you go 100 percent long here, at any point near term, you risk getting trapped.

      I agree, there is no bubble waiting to be popped. The downside is very, very unlikely to be 50 percent, or 70 percent. But the downside is certainly 20 to 30 percent possibly. Thirty percent off S&P 500 at 1500 is way, way down there at about 1,050. Even 20 percent puts it at about 1200. Anybody willing to have 100 percent get trapped like that? Anybody think it can't happen?

      Try 120-dollar oil for starters. Try and imagine what earnings might be like in the next two "earnings seasons".

      P/Es are reasonable? Sure, but not cheap. I go back to when they have slumped to 12, or even 10. It happens.

      The game is rigged to the upside, and anyone who doesn't realize that is not too clever. But from time to time there is substantial downside risk. This next 6 to 12 months is one of those times, I think. Keep an oar in the water if you must, but don't get sucked in. There are times, not often, but I think this is one of them, that call for more substantial cash reserves than normal. I want to buy at 1100 or 1200. It will take cash. I will have some.
      View article »
    • Mon Nov 12th 00:42 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Aiful Corpration to Benefit From Japanese Consumer Lending Consolidation
      So ... you make a tout ... you get your behind handed to you on a silver platter ... people ask for clarification about your tout ... and you are too weak to even reply.

      You don't belong here. Got that? Anybody can recommend anything. People with guts stand behind their recommendations, or at least offer explanations.

      You ran away and hid. Pitty the bastards that listened to you.

      Lance
      View article »
    • Fri Oct 12th 01:28 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Aiful Corpration to Benefit From Japanese Consumer Lending Consolidation
      I am NOT going to let this go away. Not because you were wrong, but because you refuse to say anything about it.

      Either you respond to your mistakes, or you don't deserve to be a featured poster ... anywhere.

      What say you? Silence when your picks go down the toilet?

      How professional.

      Are you going to wait for 2012 and then claim victory? Your position is FAR underwater; much more than prudent money management would allow.

      What say you, wimp?

      Lance
      View article »
    • Thu Sep 20th 19:36 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Aiful Corpration to Benefit From Japanese Consumer Lending Consolidation
      Not to beat a dead horse here, but do you follow up on any of these train wrecks?

      This tout is now about 50 percent of your entry price (as of yesterday). I didn't buy it, which is probably obvious from my previous comments. Moreover, given the industry meltdown, I didn't enter around 2200 either. There simply is no way to manage a trade with reasonable risk when these companies are just pancaking.

      But you put it out there, and you should follow up on your trades.

      Lance
      View article »
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