hypertokyo

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Sun Nov 6th 21:02 PM | Rating: 0 0
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We're Giving Away 5 Copies of "An Introduction to Project Finance" by Andrew Fight

Always open to free stuff...
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Tue Nov 1st 21:30 PM | Rating: 0 0
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Merrill Lynch's Jesper Koll, "Japan is Back, For Real This Time"

I think Koll's article is representative of a recent consensus among economists that Japan has entered into a recovery phase, powered by rising consumption, increased corporate spending, and better competitiveness and efficiency in its export industries.
At the same time, many predict a US slowdown in 2006 or 2007; the housing market, which is a leading indicator, seems to be on the verge of a meltdown - this would severely impact households, and subsequently drag down the wider economy.
I would like to ask the group's opinions on how much impact a US slump would have on the Japanese economy, keeping in mind the fact that the Japan is less dependent on America than it used to be, and is now more linked with the Chinese and SE Asian markets. Would the effects of the US recession also pull Japan down, and by how much?
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Tue Nov 1st 05:57 AM | Rating: 0 0
Commented on:
Merrill Lynch's Jesper Koll, "Japan is Back, For Real This Time"

I think you overlook two important growth factors-
1. Corporate spending. Manufacturers are moving up the value chain. Steel and consumer electronics manufacturing has already moved overseas, but Japan still has an edge in the top-end stuff, for which they are investing in more production capacity. Koll points out that labor costs have fallen. They are also replacing the aging (and expensive) workforce with robots/automation.
2. Consumer spending will get a boost as many baby boomers retire and their children reaching 40 also increase leisure expenditures.
In my I have a link to an interview with Mizuho's chief economist who supports this view. In his opinion the recovery will last through 2013.
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