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Latest Comments184 Comments
Who Might Benefit From Detroit's Failings
This is not the time to allow any major institution to fail.
Lehman's failure set the precedent for the whole financial sector and almost derailed the economy.
If we allow GM and Chrysler to fail, the sequential set of events would undermine every economic sector and paralyze investors psyche.
Let the Congress provide the bridge loan to the auto industry and let's enjoy the economic/market rebound in the period ahead.
The current Armageddon has been neutralized .
Let's not "invite"the sequel by preaching economic ignorance.
The Cyber Monday Meltdown
After lagging the curve the FED,the Administration ,the Treasury and the Congress have addressed the issues effecitively .
Now we need moratorium on "short " positions for six months to allow the implemmented remedies to work.
At this point in time the media and certain"predator&... funds are responsible for the investors paranoia.
Economy is heading for a moderate expansion in the first half of 2009 and major rebound in the second half of 2009.
Let the SEC contrbute to the analytical rationale and reinstate the moratorium on the short positions.
One more time ,the remedies applied are very dynamic and catalytic but need time to have an impact-i dont want to hear the free market "nonsense" anymore -I want to see the moratorium now ,not when it is too late..
For the record ,I have predicted the current events in an interview with Mark Gilbert in June of 2005 -that includes the level on the 10 yr Treasuries .I have repeated my convictions/prediction... on September18 /2007 during the interview with Brian Sullivan(Bloomberg TV-Fed time)-back then I was told that I was wrong as I am being told now that I am wrong.
Deleveraging Pushes the Dollar Up
On July 3 ,2005 in an interview with Mark Gilbert (Bloomberg -London) ,I have predicted the current events -you can Google my name.
On September 18,2007 during TV interview with Brian Sullivan (Bloomberg -FED time),I have reiterated my position that the financial uprecedented Armageddon is about to hit the U.S economy.
Other than my clients I do not recall any strategist agreeing with me.
I will put my strategic/analytical track record against anybody's.
On the major trends I am always right -period.
I will restate my position again; all of the structural weaknesses in the U.S financial/economic system have been addressed.
The implemented record stimulus =s record economic catalyst ,will contribute to the net expansion in the first half of 2009 and a record rebound in the second half of 2009..
No, I do not watch CNBC but they may be reading my comments.
The next stock market mega rally lies ahead and the synonym for that rally will be "Gabe"
On Nov 29 01:37 PM icandoitdon wrote:
> gabe, this isn't your father's country anymore. in case you haven't
> noticed, our financial system has crashed, with the u.s. government,
> in the words of noriel roubini, becoming the lender not just of last
> resort, but of the first and only resort. the fallout from that has
> infected the world economy.
>
> the notion of a noninflationary rebound being just around the corner
> is simply absurd...utterly unsupported by the facts or by historical
> precedent. and your belief that u.s. economic health is more robust
> than other patients (asia, europe) in the critical ward is laughable.
> .
>
> quit watching CNBC.
>
>
>
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>
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>
Deleveraging Pushes the Dollar Up
As the subprime issues destabilized financial equilibrium (U.S)and destabilized the U.S economy, most speculators/ investors did not realize the implications of the American turmoil on the global economies and finacial system.Untill September of 2007 some mega short dollars posittons were driving force behind the dollar weakness reinforced by the universal perception that the U.S is no longer the economic/military/fina... force that it once was -ie statement from the German leader.ship. As U.S problems emerged -but were and are effectively addressed ,two things had happened .
a) Europe ,Asia and the Emerging Market zone have sequentially imploded (that is not over yet ),while the U.S economic /financial system is exhibiting the signs of stability on the way to a mega market/economic non-inflationary rebound(disposable income has been decimated suficiently enough to make consumers more averse to excessive debt).
b) unprecedented global flight to quality driven by the realization of the "masses" that only U.S can restore global stability in the economic/financial/mar... had driven the dollar to the current levels assisted by the record dollar shorts.
The dollar momentum is not over as the U.S economy is heading for the record rebound in the period ahead -not reflected in the dollar levels yet .
It is conceivable that the dollar is heading for historical highs.
The FED ,the Treasury ,the Congress and the Administration had created unprecedented catalyst for the most dynamic and noninflationary record economic rebound .
The incredible recovery ahead will make bears wince with a pain.
Citi's Underwhelming Bailout
Writing nonstop criticism about the efforts to resolve some key issues without constructive solution is just a waste of time.
The problems are being addressed (Citi included).The only thing missing is a moratorium on the short selling (at least 6 months).
The constructive thing would have been if the author had issued the warning about impending crisis -I did in June of 2005 and on September 18/2007(Bloomberg TV interview).
Now ,the criticisism of just about every effort made to address various problems is a socially/economically destructive endevor.
For all of the destructive /critical nonsense printed here,the U.S economy is heading for a major rebound.
Banks Are Yet Again Under Pressure
Lend them the money with some compensation /wage restrictions.
This is not the time to philosophise as the markets are unstable.
Continue with injecting liquidity(TARP) ,lower the FF to zero and impose six months moratorium on shorts .
This will allow the implemented measures to work without the speculative distractions.
On June 3,2005 I have said the following in an interview with Mark Gilbert(Bloomberg -London)."All of the economic forces point to a dramatic slowdown ahead which will turn into a serious recession,with almost no tools left to abort that possibility".
Now I have to listen to "experts" that this economic upheaval was unpredictable.
The implemented measures will contribute to the economic rebound but speculators must be stopped from udermining unprecedented effort at rejuvenating the eeconomy.
The SEC should impose moratorium on "shorts" immiediately.
JPMorgan: Expect Fed to Cut to 0% in January
At this stage we require a combination of approaches in one package.
Fed should lower the FF to zero immiediately.
Effective allocation of the 350 billion dollars left in TARP should continue -that includes the 25 billion dollars for the auto industry.
In addition ,the SEC should reimpose the restriction on establishing the short positions (stocks).
The implemented measures will work ,but some time is needed.
To allow speculators to exacerbate intermiitent psychological risks is to negate the measures in place thatb are potential jet fuel for the economy.
Will Berkshire Lose Its Triple-A?
Will GE lose AAA rating?it doe4s not matter ,the GE's stock has been unjustifiably decimated ,reflection of the market Armageddon. which is well divesrified .
The real issue is why does any entity still writes the CDS's as the risk is demoralized investor without the ability to quantify the real risks (which are acceptable after the major market adjustment).
The other issue is ,why do I get on my PC ,a pictorial pop-out of Mr.Salomon-I already know that he iswrong.
General Electric: Genuine Risk of Collapse?
It has an exposure to consumer goods sector ,military sector and financial sector exposure as well.
Ge got cought in the financial squeeze just as any other company did due to mass paranoia.
As the issues facing corporate America and companies outside the U.S are being effectively addressed ,GE is in a better position than most companies to recover.
There is no point in addressing day to day flactuations.
The Stock Market Is Not the U.S. Economy
Asa result of unprecedeted economic dislocation,the leading indicator (the stock market) is sometimes a confusing leader(market volatility).
The investment community must simply evaluate the global scale of intervention attempting to stabilize financial sector and economy in general.
Clearly (allowing for the multiplier),the global "intervention&quo... is unprecedented and will succed in precipitating a global economic/market rebound led by the the U.S .
By mid 2009 ,the magnitude of the U.S economic rebound will surprise the biggest bulls(if there are any left).
Some of the individual market rallies will redefine the word "Bull".
20,000 DowJones is a reality in the period ahead.
Now ,let me hear from the peanut gallery dicussing the end of the universe scenario.
Bush's Peculiar Wall Street Speech
Bush's Peculiar Wall Street Speech
The implemented policies and the global cooperation in addressing the perceived debacles will work effective andwill create a dynamic economic/market rebound .
Thwe warnings ? should have been issued a year ago -I did .
Now the nonsense from the peanut gallery will not stop unprecedented rebound in the period ahead .
Now ,let's hear another end of the iniverse story from the author.
Contrarian Investing
Higher rates,renewed wariness among indebted consumers ,and continued recycling of dollars into Treasuries by investors will help drive down yields.
Then I have said "All of the economic forces point to a dramatic slowdown ahead which will turn into a serious recession with almost no tools left to abort that possibility".
On September 18 ,2007 ,in an interview with Brian Sullivan (Bloomberg TV),I have issued a warning about the subprime Armageddon that is about to hit the markets-Other than my costumers ,I dont recall any other vocal support for that view.
Now,I am bullish as hell on the markets as the FED ,the Treasury and the Foreign Central Banks are implementing correct and mega stimulative measures which will be responsible for the unprecedented rally ahead-period.The volatility and the consolidation of the market will continue while longer.
10 More Notes for the Current Crisis
The error committed by the Treasury was tho allow Lehman to fail allowing speculators to test the tolerance limits.The error committed by the various components of the industry was diverse but the subprime lending enhanced by the Micky Mouse AAA rating on the subprime paper ,is the culprit of the financial sector's derailment.
The articles like this one have no value as the problems,issues are identified and remedies are applied .
The results may take some more time(lag),but major market and economic rebound is on the way.
It seems to me that the imposition of no naked short rule shoud be reinstituted untill broad confidence is restored .
Shorting thestock has no economic value -you don't like public company A ,don't buy the stock or buy the stock in company B.
For myself ,I have issued the warnings about impending Armageddon in an interview with Mark Gilbert (Bloomberg London) in June of 2005 and again on September 18 /2007 (Bloomberg TV -Brian Sullivan).
Now ,I am not going to discuss the sincere and measures implemented by the Administration,Congres... ,Treasury and the FED aimed at addressing serious issues-but I know they are very effective.
Spain?-it is about to implode and the higher reserve requirements will only enhance the degree of implosion.
U.S stock market is in the midst of solidifying the base for unprecedented rally .Volatility will continue.
Global cooperation on the key financial /economic issues makes the constructive outcome a certainty.
Sentiment Overview: Bullishness Is on the Rise, Insiders Are Buying
It will dwarf and redefine previous impressive 900 points spike.
Volatility will continue but the global focus/action aimed at the economic revival will exceed the expectations.
Remember ,mega rally =s Gabe.