scott146

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    • Tue Jul 11th 15:01 PM
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      Commented on:
      NYSE: If the Program Trading Numbers Look Bad, Let's Just Change the Formula
      This post is a welcome reminder that investors need to make sure they understand the basis of numbers that are posted in the headlines of financial news outlets. To me the key to understanding the impact of the program trading numbers is knowing that changes in trading volume, price, and price volatility due to program trading constitute noise obscuring the market's signal of what the real value of a stock is considered to be.
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    • Thu Jul 6th 08:53 AM
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      Commented on:
      One Page Annotated WSJ Summary, Thursday July 6th
      Just want to reiterate that this is an outstanding feature of this site. I find the commentary tied to the article summaries to be a useful pointer to further research.
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    • Tue Nov 15th 16:47 PM
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      Wal-Mart Optimistic in Japan over Soon-to-be Subsidiary Seiyu (WMT)
      One more thought:
      I would be very interested to know if Walmart will be able to import US produced food to Japan. Agricultural trade restrictions have been a significant factor in keeping food prices high in Japan.
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    • Tue Nov 15th 16:46 PM
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      Wal-Mart Optimistic in Japan over Soon-to-be Subsidiary Seiyu (WMT)
      Three thoughts that I have on this topic:

      1. The fact that an American will become the head of Seiyu shows that reforms are in fact taking place in Japanese companies. Having an American as head of a major Japanese company would have been unheard of ten years ago.
      2. Japanese consumers typically purchase smaller quantities of groceries, in part due to the lack of storage space in the average home. This may cause Walmart some heartburn as far as efficiency is concerned.
      3. Japanese roadways are narrower and trucks smaller than in the US. Since Walmart is the master of freeway distribution using large semitrucks, the infrastructure difference in Japan may limit to a degree Walmart's ability to generate the same kind of distribution efficiencies it has seen in the USA.
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    • Tue Nov 15th 16:24 PM
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      The New "Salaryman" and Changing Demographics in Japan (EWJ)
      My impression is that Japanese women are choosing to enter the workforce and skip having children.

      With respect to the traditional Japanese system where grandparents would live in the same house with their grown children and the grandchildren, I have seen sociological research that shows that this was an exploitative system with respect to the wives, as typically grandparents would live with sons and the daughters-in-law were treated almost in a serf-like manner. I can't think of the book title because it has been too many years since college. My belief is that young Japanese women are postponing marriage and children to escape the serf-like existence that was common under the multigenerational system.
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    • Sun Nov 6th 22:19 PM
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      Commented on:
      We're Giving Away 5 Copies of "An Introduction to Project Finance" by Andrew Fight
      I would like a copy of this book....

      Thanks,

      Scott
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    • Sat Nov 5th 01:49 AM
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      Merrill Lynch's Jesper Koll, "Japan is Back, For Real This Time"
      Thanks for responding to my comments. That is refreshing to see in a blog.

      As you pointed out, Japan is a world leader in robotics. I have been thinking that one way that the US could deal with the movement of manufacturing jobs overseas would be to invest in roboticizing manufacturing processses. This would produce jobs maintaining the manufacturing systems, which jobs couldn't easily be shipped overseas.

      There are two areas that I think Japan would do well to invest in that would provide economic growth and improve the country's standing in the world. First, I think that Japan should build a military force of a size that would allow Japan to take responsibility for its own security. As I am sure you are aware, there are many Japanese who would like to see the US remove its military facilities. I think that Japan should bear a greater portion of the financial burden of its own national security. Increased spending in this area would yield economic growth.

      Second, I think that Japan should pursue an accelerated space program. This would provide technological spinoffs and raise Japan's profile in the world.

      Finally, a book that anyone interested in Japan is Karel van Wolferen's book "The Enigma of Japanese Power." Although it was published a few years ago, it provides good insight into how Japanese government and businesses function.
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    • Tue Nov 1st 14:57 PM
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      Why I Have Zero Exposure to Japanese Equities
      I totally agree with you. One thing that market commentators rarely mention is the fact that Japan's population is aging and will start declining soon, for the next 45 years. It will be very difficult for the Japanese economy to generate growth with a shrinking population. In addition, with the post office reforms passed in Japan recently, that removes a source of captive assets that the Japanese government was putting into its own bonds. Once individual Japanese investors can make their own investment decisions with these funds, they are likely to shift to higher yielding investments.
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    • Mon Oct 31st 15:24 PM
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      Merrill Lynch's Jesper Koll, "Japan is Back, For Real This Time"
      I agree with Koll's forecast of an increase in economic growth for Japan, but I feel this will be due to increased spending on healthcare for the aging population.

      I don't feel that Japanese corporations will be able to borrow at extreme low rates going forward. I feel that the Ministry of Finance is reaching its limit in being able to issue notes and bonds at the extreme low rates that we see now. The passage of post office reform will allow individual Japanese savers to shift their investments out of JGB's into higher yielding assets such as US treasuries and corporate debt.

      The export industries that Japan has been heavily reliant on now have significant global overcapacity. Steel and consumer electronics are not growth industries for Japan in my view.

      I don't see where a big jump in productivity is going to come from given the aging of the workforce.
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