scott146

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    • Tue Mar 13th 12:11 PM
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      Unemployment Rate Declines, May Raise Fed Concerns
      Thanks for this information. It is definitely important to remember that the unemployment rate data comes from a survey rather than self-reporting as the other stats do as you say. So this number isn't subject to a series of revisions like the GDP number is.

      In my view, the current unemployment rate is probably somewhere around on the low side of the non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment. So the Fed is unlikely to start lowering short-term interest rates anytime soon due to the point that you make about job growth tending to lower the unemployment rate.
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    • Tue Mar 13th 11:30 AM
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      Sears: Notables From Eddie Lampert's Annual Letter
      Thanks for these quotes; these are refreshingly clear statements compared to the boilerplate that you see in a lot of annual reports.
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    • Mon Mar 12th 09:31 AM
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      Invest According to Business, Not Stock Movement: Sears - A Case in Point
      What's impressive about Sears is reducing debt and outstanding shares at the same time; I believe that is quite rare, especially for a company the size of Sears. Maybe I'll have to take a look inside a Sears store sometime.
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    • Fri Mar 9th 10:31 AM
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      The Carry Trade: Perpetuation Or Collapse
      Interesting ideas about the senior citizen Japanese savers. However, if the BoJ takes your advice the rise in the yen would damage the profits of the Japanese export sector. Since historically the BoJ has favored the export sector I don't see them pursuing the policy that you suggest.
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    • Thu Mar 8th 13:36 PM
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      Private Equity Enthusiasts: Will Someone Please Expose Their Delusion?
      How does the insolvency practice of Ernst and Young and the audit practice of the same firm reconcile their likely conflicting views of these deals? The lenders or PE people will definitely have audits done at least annually where a Big Four firm will have to sign off on the new entities' financials. Yet here is a Big Four firm saying a lot of these deals are going to be DOA. I guess at least E & Y will be able to say "we warned you."
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    • Thu Mar 8th 13:01 PM
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      GM's Wagoner: 'U.S. Auto Industry Consolidation Unlikely'
      This is sad to hear, because the US auto industry is in dire need of consolidation. It is this kind of cluelessness that has brought the US auto industry to the predicament it is now in.
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    • Thu Mar 8th 12:51 PM
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      Ethanol: A Few Myths Debunked
      Thanks for the information and analysis. I couldn't agree more with your debunking of the myths that you've listed. I've posted a few of my thoughts here...the biggest howler is the talk of a shortage of cropland. The US government's programs that pay farmers not to plant crops and support the prices of certain agricultural commodities are an indicator of gross excess agricultural capacity in the US alone, to say nothing of the productivity of the rest of the world's farmlands.
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    • Mon Mar 5th 14:48 PM
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      About Recent Financial Turbulence
      Although the primary goal of the Chinese and Indian authorities is naturally to reign in their domestic inflation, it is likely that this withdrawal of liquidity will have meaningful effects in the US capital markets. For example, funds for purchase of mortgage-backed securities may shrink as a result of these actions. A document produced by Brad Setser has several interesting statements:

      "Chinese deposits in international banking system are relatively small; most Chinese reserves seem to be invested in securities.
      It is not just Treasuries
      China holds a relatively diverse portfolio
      Lots of agency bonds
      Other mortgage backed securities as well
      The trend has been for more purchases of agencies, corporate debt, and the dollar-denominated debt of emerging economies
      China will likely set up a “government investment corporation” at some point to make more aggressive investments; PBoC manages a very significant share of China’s national wealth."

      It seems to me that the PBoC is possibly going to take it in the shorts not only on its dollar reserves that it has accumulated while suppressing the value of the RMB, but on its investments made with those dollar reserves.
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    • Wed Feb 28th 10:09 AM
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      Keel Capital Calling It Quits
      Unfortunate timing for that statement "a lack of attractive short-selling opportunities" :)
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    • Tue Feb 27th 18:06 PM
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      Intel Adds Insult To Injury With Latest Production Investment
      From the chart, it would appear that Intel has a big pile of pre-Core 2 Duo chips sitting in a warehouse somewhere. Perhaps a writedown is in the cards in the near future?
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    • Tue Feb 27th 11:01 AM
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      How Do Risk Appetite and Liquidity Impact the Markets?
      The prime example of this is Japan: the Bank of Japan has been spewing out liquidity for many years and yet consumer spending in Japan has not increased accordingly over the years. Likewise, the Nikkei 225 is at the approximately same level today as it was in 1987.

      Ravenor
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    • Tue Feb 13th 17:14 PM
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      Will the CDO Machine Destroy Public Equity?
      An excellent post. The idea that public company debt should have little to no spread over US Treasuries is absurd. I referenced some of your thoughts here over at my blog with a post titled Excellent Analysis of Collateralized Debt Obligations.
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    • Wed Nov 15th 10:39 AM
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      CarMax: Fast Earnings, Huge Turnover
      Very nicely done analysis. Clear explanation of the logic behind your filtering algorithm is a good thing.
      View article »
    • Thu Sep 21st 08:21 AM
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      Dell Laptop Explodes at Yahoo Office; ThinkEquity Says Dell May Pre-Announce
      The key item in this report is the the expectation that Intel is likely to cut off its "marketing budget" that it has been providing to Dell. This price subsidy in my view has been a key component of Dell's competitive advantage, along with its inventory management skills and direct marketing model. Dell has been able to win market share in the past with the lowest prices in large part due to the price discounts Intel has been giving them on its chips.

      It is logical that Intel would cut this off now that Dell has broken down and started to offer AMD-based machines.
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    • Wed Aug 23rd 17:14 PM
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      Oil's Slippery Slope: Why Crude and Oil Stocks May Be Headed Down, Fast
      I agree 100% with this analysis. Thanks for pointing out a number of facts that are being largely ignored these days.

      Scott
      View article »