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Apple's iPhones: 10 Million and Counting?

by: Joel West October 10, 2008 | about stocks: AAPL    

Joel West

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Seeking Alpha authors Andy Zaky and Turley Muller estimate that 9 months into 2008, Apple has already surpassed Steve Jobs’ widely quoted (and oft-ridiculed) projection of selling 10 million iPhones this year. In particular, they calculate that Apple sold 7-7.5 million units in Q3, the final quarter of the Apple fiscal year, building on the strong sales spurt with July’s release of the iPhone 3G.

They use a clever strategy of tracking serial numbers (IMEI) as a way to estimate how many phones have been built, and use convergent numbers from web browser stats.

Apple’s FYQ4 earnings release is due a week from Tuesday. If Zaky and Muller are right, Jobs will proudly proclaim that Apple has blown past the 10 million figure in hopes of supporting the stock.

So far the stock is in freefall, off even more than Google due to worries about consumer spending. Next week’s rumored announcement of a sub-$1K laptop won’t turn that around, but perhaps unexpectedly strong iPhone earnings could provide support for the stock.

More importantly, if Apple is lucky the announcement will correspond to a shift in the overall macroeconomy. In a rare example of local TV actually interviewing someone who knows something about the economy, our local NBC station tonight ran an interview with a really smart Chicago school economist who also happens to be a former Congressman and business school dean. Tom Campbell says the economy will keep falling until the Feds start spending the bailout money, hopefully in a few weeks.

Disclosure: No position AAPL.

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This article has 16 comments:

  •  
    Oct 10 02:51 PM
    Apple is probably among the best buys in the market today because of Steve Jobs. The company has a great long term future. While many people have lost their retirement nest egg in their 401k plans, it does not have to be that way. Seniors and baby boomers deserve their Golden Retirement years, and not at McDonalds under the Golden Arches. It is so sad to seee many seniors, working there today, to supplement their social security checks. it is a stock that will not let you down for the long term. Up $4 today in a down market.
    Reply
  •  
    Oct 10 02:51 PM
    Yawn.
    Reply
  •  
    Oct 10 03:13 PM
    Apple has been a rebel to the market lately. I am hoping that this is not just a short pop, but perhaps a signal that the bottom is here. I really thought we would finally rally today on the overall market, oil prices falling is VERY GOOD FOR THE CONSUMER! The days not over, hopefully no late freefall, but a late rally. If we freefall today, I am jumping in as a buyer.
    Reply
  •  
    Oct 10 03:18 PM
    Ha, as a wrote that the Dow gained 250 points, still 42 togo though!
    Reply
  •  
    Oct 10 03:33 PM
    "If Zaky and Muller are right, Jobs will proudly proclaim that Apple has blown past the 10 million figure in hopes of supporting the stock."

    er no. Steve doesn't attend the Earnings reports
    Reply
  •  
    Oct 10 04:13 PM
    Bought Apple at $90.06.. I think it will end up being a good buy. I also shorted Amazon as a hedge and because Amazon has further multiple contraction to go in my opinion.

    Check out my other moves at 20smoney.com
    Reply
  •  
    Oct 10 04:59 PM
    FYI ... both AAPL and GOOG are off 51% YTD, and AAPL showed solid upside today when the market was barfing. i think if you do your homework you'll realize that AAPL is significantly undervalued at current levels and the forthcoming laptops & earnings will push the shares up at least 25% over the next month.
    Reply
  •  
    Oct 10 05:02 PM
    well SJ have a 87$ line stock option, otherwise he will earn just a dollar per year.
    Reply
  •  
    Oct 11 10:16 AM
    @ haveittodayray;

    Only those that have sold, have actually lost anything. Now is not a time to liquidate to cash. This time next year, those accounts will be substantially recovered.

    We are in a buyers market with yard sale prices.
    Reply
  •  
    Oct 11 10:19 AM
    @dig; You are completely correct. Conditions are ripe for Apple to be the Perfect Storm. Get ready to ride the tsunami!
    Reply
  •  
    Oct 11 10:21 AM
    Apple is the new IBM:

    Steve Jobs declared, that he would invest and spend on R & D if the economy became recessionary. He has made good on his promise. New acquisitions, new factories, new technologies, recruiting and hiring the smartest people.

    What is different, however, that their product line has been immune to this recession; their products continue to inspire record sales.

    An economic downturn is one of the best opportunities for companies, small and large, to invest in expansion. Costs are low, competitors are pulling back. Once the economy comes back around, the one that ignored the "news" and "fear", and kept moving forward always ends up way in the lead.

    WE are the economy, not the stock market; invest in ourselves, our families, and our own businesses, that's something we all have control over.

    Apple is the new IBM & the new Sony all rolled into one.

    Long IBM & Apple is a very smart move; adding to your position at these sale prices is even smarter. This is a chance of a lifetime that does not often come around.

    Reply
  •  
    Oct 11 10:34 AM
    i agree with the windinthedus... and my family bought 2 iphones just last weekend and the apple store was jammed and people were buying..there was no recession in THERE.

    but i think there's a part of the growth that is still not cited much and that is for businesses trying to pare down their IT departments, which are very expensive.

    it's becoming obvious that if you have computers that are easier to use, require less tech support, and have great FREE tech support available, esp. in cities with Apple stores, (though online is good too), why would you stay with computers that are so troublesome and need a lot of coddling...to say nothing of the downtime in production by workers whose computers are frozen or virus laden? they won't. they'll eventually move to Macs.

    It won't make any difference if microsoft advertises about Vista every 5 minutes. We all know it sucks. It's just a matter of time for Apple, which is a great stock buy at these prices...whew! if you have some cash, now's the time!!
    Reply
  •  
    Oct 12 02:14 AM
    Don't get too slap-happy -- AAPL may go to $60. APPL is being hyped-up by its lovers simply because APPL went up on Friday. If you look at how low it has plunged in the last weeks, it is not a sure thing at all. I have researched this thoroughly, and where this stock is going is questionable at this point. Don't be surprised to see some further drops to the low 80's.
    Reply
  •  
    Oct 13 01:19 AM
    Keep in mind that if you bought APPL a couple of years ago, you'd find it's still up above what you paid because it has made so much progress. If you bought MSFT 5 years ago, well, you would have seen almost no gains, and even though it's down less than APPL this month, it has been a decade since it's made any substantial, long term gains. Look at the charts.
    Reply
  •  
    Oct 22 03:22 PM
    Ahh, but he did this time...
    Reply
  •  
    Oct 22 03:24 PM
    Sorry, wrong blog format...

    That was to rattyuk:
    "er no. Steve doesn't attend the Earnings reports"

    Ahh, but he did this time...
    Reply
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