YTB International: Wall Street's Next Online Travel Darling?
Priceline (Nasdaq: PCLN) is the online travel industry’s best company, as judged by the valuation currently accorded its publicly traded shares. Though Expedia (Nasdaq: EXPE) has a higher total market capitalization, Priceline shares trade at a multiple of trailing twelve months earnings that is nearly 50% higher than the same earnings multiple of Expedia. (PCLN ttm p/e = 36, EXPE ttm p/e = 23).
Thus, it would not be a stretch to say that PCLN is the darling of Wall Street when it comes to the online travel space and it is easy to see why. PCLN management has steered this company from bleeding red ink and the necessity of a reverse split five years ago to its place today as an international powerhouse in online travel. Shareholders who bought into PCLN when it first started making the turn towards profitability (about 5 years ago this month) have enjoyed 5 year gains of as much as 2000% (for those who purchased near the $6 lows in 2003).
Investors seeking gains of that kind in the online travel space will likely be disappointed if they invest in one of the big publicly traded players, including PCLN. Though PCLN management appears to be executing magnificently, the company’s stock price ($128 as of this writing) already reflects this near flawless execution. Its hard to imagine that investor’s could see the stock double over the next year or so, much less increase by a factor of three or four times. It is this realization that made us do a little digging to see if there are any companies out there that have PCLN type potential, but have yet to be recognized by the investment community as such. This brings us to the stock we believe investors should consider - a company called YTB International (YTBLA.PK) (hereinafter “YTB“).

YTB International is a rapidly growing company in the online travel space. While both PCLN and YTBLA operate in the online travel space, their core business models are so different that it makes most comparisons of their respective businesses less than meaningful - it would be like comparing apples with oranges. However, we see much commonality between the two companies from an investment standpoint - with PCLN as a model of the kind of stock price appreciation that could be achieved by a company in this space under the right circumstances. Simply put, we see potential for investors in YTB stock to earn the kind of return long term PCLN investors have enjoyed.
YTBLA is currently traded on the pink sheets and we have never recommended a stock that trades on the Pink Sheets before. However, YTBLA is current on all listing requirements, expects to be listed on the OTCBB within the next few weeks and we fully expect that the company will be listed on a national exchange before the end of this year. We have also never recommended a company with a multi level marketing model, though We have reviewed many of them over the years and can appreciate the wealth and value created by billion dollar companies like Avon (NYSE: AVN), Tupperware (NYSE: TUP), Herbalife (NYSE: HLF) and PrePaid Legal Services (NYSE: PPD). Despite these two factors, we are still recommending YTBLA because we believe they are poised to be a significant player in the online travel space and we further believe that investors in the stock at today’s prices could see Priceline type gains over the next few years and possibly sooner.
As mentioned previously, YTBLA’s business model is very different from PCLN and EXPE, each of whom operates a website that is designed to be a portal through which consumers book travel online. PCLN and EXPE spend millions of dollars in advertising each quarter to attract consumers to their websites in hopes that they will book travel thereby earning the company commissions or merchant revenues. YTB spends very little on advertising, relying instead on a network of “referral travel agents” (hereinafter “RTAs”) to book travel through their own private labeled YTB website. These referral travel agents pay YTB a start up fee (around $499), then a monthly fee ($49) to host their online booking engines. The referral travel agents then earn a commission on each booking, a small percentage of which is retained by YTB. Thus, YTB earns revenue each time a new RTA signs up, then earns monthly hosting fees and commissions from each RTA.
Thus, even though both companies operate in the online travel space, the business models and revenue generation engines are quite different. The more important recognition here, we believe, is that from an investor’s standpoint, YTB is a company that is in a very similar position to where PCLN found themselves five years ago. At that time, PCLN had a flagging stock price and many questions surrounding its business model, despite the fact that it was making obvious strides in its quest to turn the corner to profitability.
This is similar to the storyline we are see today for YTB, where the company has dealt with several bumps in the road, most of which were related to either its ability to manage very high volume growth in a very short time or attempts by competitors to try and slow the company’s march forward.
It appears that these bumps in the road have been unable to stop or even slow YTB’s momentum. The company’s most recent annual report shows staggering gains in bookings, commissions earned, revenue and steady gains in the number of RTA‘s who have signed up to participate. The company grew gross travel bookings more than 187% in 2007 over 2006 and saw the base of active RTA’s more than double. The company reported its third profitable quarter in a row, its first full year profit and it appears to have reached a point in its growth cycle where it has achieved the critical mass necessary to grow revenues significantly without a commensurate increase in expenses. We saw evidence in the recent 10K filing that indicated general and administrative expenses as a percentage of total revenue fell to only 26.1% in 2007 from 36.5% of revenue in 2006.
Another way we expect the company to grow margins is by earning higher percentage commissions. A very good indicator of this trend was reported in the recent 10K filing. The company reported an 84% gain in gross total bookings, which led to a 178% gain in gross total commissions received. As the company establishes itself as a high volume source of bookings for travel suppliers, the suppliers are willing to pay higher commissions and overrides. This accrues to the benefit of YTB as well as its RTA’s.
We see an opportunity for the company to further expand margins by building or buying its own wholesale business. By becoming the “merchant of record” for travel transactions, particularly lodging, YTB can expand on the traditional 10% commissions to instead earn effective rates in the 20 - 35% range. We note that it was a similar move into wholesale lodging reservations by Priceline in 2003 that allowed them to make the jump to profitability and that their acquisition of one of Europe’s largest lodging wholesalers that has been the catalyst for Priceline’s dramatic growth the last three years.
We believe further expansion of the company’s margins are possible as the company leverages the value of its network of 130,000+ active websites. The company’s cost to roll out additional product offerings through their RTA website channel is next to zero as is their risk. As such, we expect to see several new products offered through the RTA network in 2008, each of which could have a material impact on YTB’s financials.
In summary, we believe that YTB’s status as a pink sheets listed company that lacks Wall Street coverage or even main street attention has allowed the recent surge in its business to go unnoticed. The earnings acceleration and margin expansion simply have not been reflected in the stock price - as the stock has fallen more than 70% since the 2007 Q2 report of their first profitable quarter. With the stock currently hovering around the $1.65 per share range - we feel that the stock has the potential for exponential returns as investors become more aware of the YTB story and the company continues its domestic and international expansion. We believe the company is on the verge of a margin breakout that could propel the company to several periods of high double digit year over year earnings growth and that investors will ultimately accord YTB the kind of earnings multiple usually associated with such growth. As such, investors at today’s prices could be buying into the proverbial “ten bagger” or even better, enjoy returns like 2003 investors in the PCLN story, who earned 20x their money in less than five years. If YTB can sustain growth at the half the rate it grew in 2007, YTB investors at today’s prices could do even better than that.
Disclosure: Author has a long position in YTBLA.PK
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This article has 183 comments:
- FormerYTBer
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Apr 02 11:57 AM- Travelin Man
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Apr 02 12:20 PM- financialplanner
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Apr 02 12:30 PM- Stan Hanks, MD
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Apr 02 12:47 PM- No So Sure
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Apr 02 12:54 PM- i-travelbiz
- 2 Comments
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Apr 02 12:59 PM- YTB 4 ever
- 2 Comments
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Apr 02 01:39 PM- in biz
- 1 Comment
Apr 02 01:46 PMA real shame.
- LIGHT TRAVEL
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Apr 02 01:54 PM- YTB 4 ever
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Apr 02 01:55 PMWOOD RIVER, Ill., Sept. 24 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- YTB International, Inc. (OTC Pink Sheets: YTBLA) ('YTB' or the 'Company'), a provider of Internet-based travel booking services for travel agencies and home-based independent representatives in the United States, today announced that the Direct Selling Association ('DSA') has approved its application for active membership in the organization.
YTB completed a one-year pending period required for full membership in the association. During this time, the Company's marketing and business plans were reviewed to ensure full compliance with all provisions established by DSA's Code of Ethics. YTB joins the elite ranks of DSA's more than 220 active and pending member companies in the United States.
DSA is the national trade association representing companies that manufacture and sell products and services sold directly to consumers, primarily through an independent contractor sales force. Its mission is 'to protect, serve and promote the effectiveness of member companies and the independent business people they represent. To ensure that the marketing by member companies of products and/or the direct sales opportunity is conducted with the highest level of business ethics and service to consumers.' Each DSA member company pledges to abide by the Code of Ethics' standards and procedures as a condition of admission and continuing membership in DSA. This Code of Ethics speaks to both the consumer and the seller, and ensures that member companies will make no statements or promises that might mislead either consumers or prospective sales people. The DSA Code of Ethics expressly prohibits pyramid schemes, deceptive or unlawful consumer or recruiting practices, misrepresentation of earning or sales potential, inventory loading and unreasonable entrance fees.
Scott Tomer, CEO of YTB International, stated, 'We are proud to have been granted membership in the DSA. Our acceptance further validates the strict internal business practice standards to which we hold ourselves. Our Company is committed to maintaining these high standards, as well as those set by the DSA.'
About DSA
DSA is the national trade association of the leading firms that manufacture and distribute goods and services sold directly to consumers. Among its more than 220 active and pending members are companies selling both via a party-plan method and in the traditional person-to-person style. In 2006, U.S. direct sales were more than $32 billion with more than 15.2 million direct sellers nationwide. The vast majority are independent business people 'micro-entrepreneurs' whose purpose is to sell the product/service of the company they voluntarily choose to represent. Approximately 90 percent of direct sellers operate their business part-time. To find out more about DSA please visit dsa.org.
About YTB International
YTB International, Inc. provides Internet-based travel booking services for travel agencies and home-based independent representatives in the United States, Puerto Rico, and the US Virgin Islands. It operates through three subsidiaries: YourTravelBiz.com, Inc., YTB Travel Network, Inc., and REZconnect Technologies, Inc. YourTravelBiz.com division focuses on marketing online travel agencies through a nationwide network of independent business people, known as 'Reps.' YTB Travel Network division establishes and maintains travel vendor relationships, books travel transactions of online travel agents (RTAs, now numbering over 120,000), collects travel commissions and pays sales commissions. Each RTA sells travel through a personalized Internet-based travel website. The REZconnect Technologies division operates as a travel vendor relationship management company and offers franchises of brick and mortar travel agencies.
Statements about the Company's future expectations, including future revenues and earnings, and all other statements in this press release other than historical facts are 'forward-looking statements' within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933, Section 21E of the Securities Exchange of 1934, and as that term is defined in the Private Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Such forward-looking statements involve risks and uncertainties and are subject to change at any time, and the Company's actual results could differ materially from expected results. The Company undertakes no obligation to update forward-looking statements to reflect subsequently occurring events or circumstances.
This document is available on the KCSA Worldwide Website at kcsa.com. Investor Contacts: Garth Russell / Yemi Rose KCSA Worldwide 212-896-1250 / 212-896-1233
Source: PR Newswire (September 24, 2007 - 7:02 AM EST)
- In Biz Are You Blind
- 1 Comment
Apr 02 02:00 PM- KC Home Biz
- 1 Comment
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Apr 02 02:18 PM- webmaster
- 1 Comment
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Apr 02 02:30 PM- anastos
- 42 Comments
Apr 02 02:42 PM- WOF Travel
- 1 Comment
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Apr 02 02:43 PM- Figures Don't Lie!
- 1 Comment
Apr 02 02:51 PM- AllWhoTravel
- 3 Comments
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Apr 02 03:04 PM- not an agent
- 2 Comments
Apr 02 03:06 PM- Jurose Home Biz
- 1 Comment
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Apr 02 03:08 PMThe pseudonym - in biz indicates to me that you are in some type of business so it would seem to me that you would recognize a good business deal when you see it. My site is just as viewable and easy to access as any of those commercial sites I list above and the prices are very competitive if not cheaper. Now if I have a site like this and show it to my friends and family, why would they decide to book on the commercial site instead, especially if mine is cheaper?
You are welcomed to visit the site for yourself. I just flew back home from Atlanta, GA. While I was standing in line with my e-ticket I had a question about something and happened to show the ticket to a fellow standing in line. He took a look at my ticket and the first thing he said was "wow - this is a really cheap ticket." I purchased that round trip on my site and shortly after I got home, I received a check in the mail for commission on that trip as well as other trips that friends had purchased on my site. Not bad for as you put it "not a true travel site" Huh?!!!
- not an agent
- 2 Comments
Apr 02 03:10 PMwww.chicagotribune.com...
- CardsHomeBiz.com
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Apr 02 03:27 PMA lot of naive YTB reps, many of whom didn't know a P/E ratio from a palm tree, got swept up in the frenzy and lost their hard-earned investment.
I'm glad to see YTB beginning to build travel bookings. When the average RTA actually earns marginally more in TRAVEL COMMISSIONS (without recruiting) than the $50/month cost of the travel portal, then this will be viable long-term business model and the high attrition may stop.
Until then, I'm putting my energies into building with a product-driven company. At SendOutSpecialCards.co... customers voluntarily spend about $50/month on a product that makes their contacts feel valued and explodes their business referrals. The result: steady growth, customer retention and long-term residuals.
- ybitravel
- 2 Comments
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Apr 02 03:32 PMNearly 80% of travelers in the US book online and most think that getting paid a commission to book their own travel is a good business plan. This idea works for individuals as well as small businesses. Based on recent activity with the stock I would say that alot of investors agree.
If you want to learn more about the business model you can browse here to find out. ybitravel.biz
- YTB RTA
- 1 Comment
Apr 02 03:44 PM- User 171905
- 1 Comment
Apr 02 04:08 PM73.4% of YTB revenues came from the sale of travel web sites to suckers that think they are going to get rich. Just how many travel website does this world need anyway? Only 14.5% of their revenue came from actual travel commissions.
If you look at the their sales of web sites, you'll see they signed up 139,239 people last year. Add that to the 59,736 they had at the end of 2006, and if everyone was making money, they would have 198,975 sites active at the end of 2007. However, they only have 131,065. That means 67,910 people cut there losses and gave up on YTB.
Of the $80 million in marketing commissions that were paid out, $45 million went to the 163 directors. So, as with any pyramid scheme, the people at the top get rewarded, and those at the bottom get the shaft.
If you devide the travel commissions paid by YTB by the number of active sites at the end of the year, you get an average of about $102.00 per site. Since they pay 49.95 per month, that is an average loss of about $500 per site. At that rate, it won't take long for more to bail out. Even if you divide the amount by those active at the end of 2006, it's only $225 per year, still a loss of $375 per site. Sure seems like a great business model to me!
If you want to be a travel agent, there are much better ways to do this. Many host agencies provide a website just like YTBs at no fee whatsoever, and charge nothing to join. Further, they give 80% of the commission earned, not 60%. So, tell me again why YTB is such a good deal? Give me a break.
I was wondering why the stock suddenly started jumping. It turns out it is because someone was buying ahead of this pump-up article. Personally, I think I should forward this to stocklemon.com. I'll bet they have a field day with it.
- ybitravel
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Apr 02 04:50 PM- IN YTB TOO
- 1 Comment
Apr 02 05:15 PMTo those who say the people at the top are the ones getting rich, that's true, too. But the beauty of the YTB model is anyone can exceed the earnings of the person who brought them into the business through their own diligence--and it happens every day.
As for Royal Caribbean, it's tough to understand how a company like YTB that sells millions of dollars in travel and is the largest booker of Carnival cruises in the US is a card mill. And one would think that IATA would like 130,000 RTA's to pay individual memberships rather than being grouped under YTB's collective IATA number.
I would also suggest that YTB understands that RTA's need to sell more travel; that's why the company is now placing an emphasis on travel training to assist the sales effort. I would agree with the author's assertion that the comany has reached a "critical mass" where the percentage of revenue for recruiting vs. travel will start to tip.
I can tell you after a year in the business that I have made back more than my original investment, I don't have to pay $49.95 monthly because I've enlisted more than six people and when anyone books travel on my or any other YTB site, the travel is fulfilled and there are no issues. I can't speak to what will happen to the stock but it seems to me this company is well run, generates enthusiasm and the money earned by people who are embracing the business opportunity is making a difference for them and for their families. YTB bashers--keep your powder dry. Time will tell...
- CRTA
- 1 Comment
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Apr 02 05:37 PM- stock traveler
- 1 Comment
Apr 02 05:57 PM- TheVacationMedic
- 2 Comments
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Apr 02 06:03 PMYTB's business model is different than the conventional model so that is the main thing that gets attacked. Again, it's ignorance. I have a feeling that there will those out there saying ignorant things now and will feel pretty silly down the road realizing they advertised the ignorance.
- FIREFIGHTER HATES SKEPTICISM
- 3 Comments
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Apr 02 06:09 PMYOU CANNOT STOP A MARKET SHIFT LADIES AND GENTLEMEN AND YOU CANNOT STOP THE FACT THAT INTERNET TRAVEL IS TAKING OVER AND THAT YTB IS THE PERFECT OPP. FOR EVERYBODY THAT DESERVES A PIECE OF IT...THE ONLY THING SKETICS DESERVE IS A JOB---WHICH STANDS FOR "JUST OVER BROKE" BECAUSE THEY NEVER BELIEVE ENOUGH IN ANYTHING ACCEPT WORKING FOR SOMEONE ELSE TO MAKE THE OTHER PERSON WEALTHY.
EVERY BUSINESS THAT USES THE FRANCHISE MODEL SOLD MORE IN FRANCHISE FEES IN THE BEGINNING--BUT THE PRODUCT SALES CAUGHT UP...PUT YOUR BIAS ASIDE AND READ THE LATEST YTB PRESS RELEASE FINANCIAL REPORT FOR 2007. THE TRAVEL BOOKINGS ARE CATCHING UP. SO SOME FRANCHISE RESTAURANTS SELL MORE FOOD THAN OTHERS--DOES THAT MAKE THE FRANCHISE CONCEPT A SCAM ALSO? NO--SOME RTA'S ARE BETTER AT SELLING TRAVEL THAN OTHERS, SO WHAT!!
IN TIME ALL OF YOU SKEPTICS WILL REALIZE THAT ONCE AGAIN YOU HAVE MISSED OUT ON A MARKET SHIFT. BUT THAT IS WHAT MAKES THE SKEPTICS SPECIAL--WE NEED PEOPLE TO KEEP THEIR JOBS ANYWAY OR LIFE WOULD BE BORING FOR THOSE OF US WITH VISION.
IF YOU WERE SMART YOU WOULD HAVE INVESTED EVEN FOR THE "HYPE" AS YOU CALL IT. BUT NOBODY EVER GETS RICH BEING SCARED DO THEY? AND WHAT IT BOILS DOWN OT IS THAT YOU ARE ALL AFRAID TO TAKE A CHANCE AND THAT YOU DO NOT BELIEVE THAT YOU ARE WORTH A $500.00 CHANCE AT A GREAT BUSINESS WITH A GREAT COMPANY.
EVEN BARRY DILLER WITH EXPEDIA HAD HIS OPPONENTS. DID THAT STOP HIM? EVEN WAL-MART HAS THEIRS. DOES THAT STOP THEM? MICROSOFT SUED OVER WINDOWS BUT MOST OF US STILL USE THAT PROGRAM DAILY. WAKE UP AND SMELL THE COFFEE PEOPLE..
GOD BLESS THE TOMER FAMILY AND YTB...AND GOD BLESS THE SKETICS TOO---YOU ALL REALLY NEED HIS HELP AND A LESSON IN FAITH!!
- Don Price
- 1 Comment
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Apr 02 06:44 PMHere we are, in modern times, where we have set foot on the moon, (ops – better watch my words – there are people who still think the earth is flat) broke the sound barrier, communicate through air with the most modern technology and still people will try to invalidate it.
Even the well educated are not off the hook from such lack of knowledge and ignorant responses. The world is in change and YTB Just may be ahead of the curve!
- yleek
- 1 Comment
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Apr 02 07:03 PM- YTB HYPE
- 1 Comment
Apr 02 07:14 PM- jrs2563
- 1 Comment
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Apr 02 07:51 PM